Projections of the future burden of cancer in Australia using Bayesian age-period-cohort models

Accurate forecasts of cancer incidence, with appropriate estimates uncertainty, are crucial for planners and policy makers to ensure resource availability prioritize interventions. We used Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) models project the future incidence in Australia. APC were fitted counts diagnoses Australia from 1982 2016 projected 2031 seven key types: breast, colorectal, liver, lung, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, melanoma stomach. Aggregate data population-based registries sourced Australian Institute Health Welfare. Over projection period, total these types increased on average by 3 % annually 100 385 2031, which is a 50 increase over numbers, although there considerable uncertainty this estimate. Counts each type sex whereas decreases age-standardized rates (ASRs) stomach, colorectal male lung cancers. Large increases ASRs liver female cancer. Increases percentage among younger age groups projected. Retrospective one-step-ahead projections indicated both its successfully forecast. part attributable increasing ageing population. The some should motivation reduce sedentary behaviour, poor diet, overweight undermanagement infections. paradigm provides useful measures associated projections.